MANIFOLD
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
28%
Alaska at-large
67%
Arizona 1
39%
Arizona 2
77%
Arizona 6
88%
California 3
76%
California 9
68%
California 13
89%
California 21
82%
California 22
96%
California 27
40%
California 40
62%
California 41
69%
California 45
79%
California 47
84%
California 49
49%
Colorado 3
69%
Colorado 8
94%
Connecticut 5
50%
Florida 13
57%
Florida 23

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

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Can @ManifoldPolitics please subsidise this market

This market is excellent and extremely useful to have. I made a companion for the non-competitive seats:

/Evansbot/how-many-safe-house-seats-will-flip

@cherrvak If you wanna put up some NO orders, I'll take the YES side of a 50/50 on Texas 28, Arizona 1, and Arizona 6

@Robincvgr oh I was just squinting at maps on the internet while clicking buttons basically at random. I have no idea what's going on in those districts, I just guessed on whether the maps had the corresponding section colored in redder or bluer

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