@polymathematic what do you think the matchup will be? Talarico v paxton?

@Jack1 I'm less convinced than the market that paxton will actually pull it out. I think it'll go to a runoff and then Cornyn will push hard on electability, especially if, as is likely, talarico has already locked up the dem nomination. but I wouldn't say I have super high confidence either way. my betting right now is mainly coming from living in Texas and having watched this before in 2018 with Beto. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see Texas electing a dem in a statewide race.

https://manifold.markets/Jack1/which-party-will-have-more-votes-in?r=SmFjazE

Which party primary will have more votes in the Texas senate primary?

This century. Democrats haven’t won statewide in only 2 states. Texas and Utah. Will Texas change this in 2026 for senate?

This market is featured on predictle today

It is insane that this is even in the cards. And yes, I think this looks calibrated right now.

Happiness hedge

I have a big yes order up

@Jack1 Lovely thanks