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MANIFOLD
Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
37
Ṁ1.4kṀ10k
Aug 4
0.7%
<3h
1.2%
3h - 4h
1.8%
4h - 5h
1.7%
5h - 6h
1.3%
6h - 7h
1.6%
7h - 8h
1.4%
8h - 9h
3%
9h - 10h
1.9%
10h - 11h
2%
11h - 12h
3%
12h - 13h
4%
13h - 14h
77%
Other

This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 5 thinking model to appear on METR's graph. Claude Sonnet 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count. Opus would not count.

50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition. As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.

Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.

See also:

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Market context
Technology
AI
Anthropic
Claude
METR
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https://x.com/defenderofbasic/status/2024834921819177142?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg

very simple hedge strategy: buy NO. If Sonnet 5 has a time horizon over 14h, you are out of a job very soon and the mana doesnt matter.

fuck

bought Ṁ5 YES

Oopsies

@bens lol tremendous cope but I guess these were reasonable bets kind of if Sonnet 4.6 had been called Sonnet 5

Am I missing something, or is "Other" meant to be a stand-in for "More than 14h"?

@NBAP that's right, for now at least

@Bayesian why so high? Did it score well on a related benchmark?

@jim who are you and what did you do with jim

@Bayesian oh they didn't released it yet

bought Ṁ1 YES

~75 days since opus 4.5

75/30 = 2.5 months

2.5 months = 1 double

opus 4.5's horizon = 5 hours

5 doubled once is 10

9-10 hours seems likely

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