Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026

Ṁ100Ṁ435

2027

40%

chance

ALL

This market will resolve Yes if METR removes or no longer updates the 50% Time Horizon from their Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models benchmark.

A public statement from METR that they will no longer officially track their 50% time horizon will count

Market context

Technology

Technical AI Timelines

News

METR

Get

1,000

to start trading!

2 Comments

14 Holders

25 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ20 YES

The current version is saturated. The next version has some chance of being saturated before it is even released. Either way, trying to measure 50% in version 1.3 is probably a fool's errand at that point.

Related Market. The resolution criteria is a bit different so I will keep this market up

People are also trading

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon

Will the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?

62% chance

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

+4% 1d37% chance

Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?

Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon

Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]

R2 / V4-Thinking METR 50% time horizon

People are also trading

Related questions