Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon

Question

This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 5 model to appear on METR's graph. Claude Opus 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count. Sonnet would not count.

50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition. As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.

[image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.

See also:

@APnLcl9A26

@zsdEyhOyPP

@nRpZqZ5np5 (this market)

@NClqRpg0yz

@gZsNQCnsuh

@LCNpQ6LN5U

@n0ncl5cgpP

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 30h - 32.5h, followed by 27.5h - 30h and 32.5h - 35h are most likely. See the market for live updates (29 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).

People are also trading

Related questions