Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
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Ṁ1kṀ1.7kDec 31
76%
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Before betting, I recommend reading the scoring methodology page. It seems to be deliberately designed to produce lower scores: ARC-AGI-3 Scoring Methodology - ARC-AGI-3 Docs.
Scoring is based on the official leaderboard. As of market creation, the top score is around 0.3%:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I'm assuming this is based on the official ARC-AGI leaderboard (not e.g. the Kaggle leaderboard)? Fyi for any other bettors, they aren't scoring harnesses. All official leaderboard scores are based on their official harness and prompts, so you can probably ignore any reports about a team you haven't heard of scoring super well on ARC-AGI-3. If this resolves YES it'll be because the frontier models get significantly better.
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