Resolves YES if Opus 4.6 shows positive PnL (profit) on predictionarena.ai (Kalshi evaluation) 14 days after it started trading.
Resolves NO if PnL is zero or negative at that time.
Resolves N/A if:
Claude Opus 4.6 doesn't start trading before end of February 2026.
predictionarena.ai becomes inaccessible
The competition officially ends or is paused before the resolution date
The model gets removed from the leaderboard
The model's portfolio gets reset
The model stops trading before 14 days have passed
The model is replaced by a newer version that does not inherit the existing portfolio
Profitability cannot be determined for any other reason
1,000predictionarena.ai has now added a Polymarket evaluation in addition to the existing Kalshi one. Will this market resolve based on the Kalshi performance if Opus 4.6 is added to both?
@PlasmaPower Good question. It will resolve to the Kalshi one as that was the intention when I created this market