By the end of 2030, how much Anthropic money will have been donated to charity?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ3.5kṀ465

2030

<$100M

$100M to $1B

13%

$1B to $3B

31%

$3B to $10B

19%

$10B to $30B

15%

>$30B

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the total amount of money donated to charity by end of 2030 that originated from Anthropic wealth. This includes:

Founder/employee donations: Money donated by individuals who accumulated wealth through Anthropic equity
Company matching donations: Funds donated by Anthropic itself through its matching program

To count, the money has to come from equity, not wages.

Background

Anthropic's cofounders have pledged to donate 80% of their wealth (https://fortune.com/2026/01/27/anthropic-billionaire-cofounders-ceo-dario-amodei-giving-away-80-percent-of-wealth-fighting-inequality-ai-revolution/). In addition, Anthropic offers 3:1 donation matching on employee equity.

The timing of these donations is especially relevant given that Anthropic's leaders expect to build AGI within 1–5 years. How much of these promised donations will materialize by the end of 2030?

Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Donations to a foundation or DAF (Donor-Advised Fund) do not count toward the resolution total.

Only actual donations made (not just promised) will count.

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Clarifications:

Donations have to be actually made, not just promised.
Donations to a foundation or DAF don't count.

Does this include big announcements? How is it determined that the checks have actually cleared? I expect some big announcements of large 'funds' that then dribble money out slowly.