MANIFOLD
Which state will be the first to ban the sale of new gas powered cars?
8
Ṁ500Ṁ1.3k
2030
42%
California
7%
Colorado
6%
Other
5%
Maryland
4%
Vermont
4%
Maine
4%
Ohio
3%
Texas
3%
Hawaii
3%
New York
3%
Utah
3%
Kentucky
2%
Tennessee
2%
Montana
1.8%
West Virginia
1.7%
Arkansas
1.6%
Oklahoma
1.4%
Alabama
1.4%
Illinois
1.3%
North Dakota

If multiple do it at the same time they resolve 50 50 or 33 33 33 etc

  • Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on when a ban on the sale of new gas-powered cars goes into effect, not when the relevant legislation is passed.

Market context
Automotive
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Are you counting a phase-out like in California, which will potentially ban sales of new gas powered cars?

And if so, I suppose it starts when the ban goes into effect, not when it's first passed?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yes it has to actually happen

People are also trading

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
30% chance
Which country will be the first to totally ban the selling and import of gasoline cars?
Will any USA State pass a law banning the sale of non-hybrid Gas Powered cars to average consumers by the end of 2030?
53% chance
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in California in 2035?
39% chance
Will Congress pass a law banning the sale of non-hybrid Gas Powered cars to average consumers by the end of 2040?
37% chance
Will Congress pass a law banning the sale of non-hybrid Gas Powered cars to average consumers by the end of 2030?
15% chance
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Washington in 2035?
43% chance
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Virginia in 2035?
33% chance
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Illinois in 2035?
37% chance
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in West Virginia in 2035?
30% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy