MANIFOLD
Which Humanoid Robot will first go into production?
19
Ṁ1kṀ658
2030
22%
Tesla-Optimus
1.6%
Boston Dynamics - Atlas
1.4%
Figure AI - Figure 01
28%
Digit- Agility Robotics
47%
Other

Resolution based on first company to start deliveries of the humanoid robot to consumers. In addition,

  1. The Robot should be available for purchase to anyone barring parties prohibited by legalities.

  2. Preorders or deliveries only to specific companies do not count as that does not fit the spirit of the question which is concerned with production.

  3. 1000 or more separate units sold and delivered to at least 10 distinct customers based on publicly available information would count as being in production and would qualify for resolution given future plans of the company to satisfy the first point.

If none deliver - n/a.

  • Update 2026-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The requirement for distinct customers has been updated from 10 to 5 companies to count as being in production. This change is intended to distinguish production from development/testing scenarios (such as single-company partnerships or internal testing).

  • Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All conditions in the Resolution Criteria must be met for resolution:

    • The robot must be available for purchase to anyone (except parties prohibited by legalities) - meaning if you can put money down, they will sell it to you (except special cases)

    • Robot as a Service (RaaS) qualifies as a sale if any entity or firm can pay for a robot to work for them

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Digit is in production and there are at least suggestion of RaaS sales to:
GXO Logistics
Ford
Mercado Libre
Amazon

Only above 4 distinct customers that I have found and I haven't found number of units for any of these. This may make showing the 1000 units sold and delivered hard to show one way or the other.

Also if they are all 'Robot as a Service' have any been sold, perhaps they are just rented and I am not sure if this counts.

So "3. 1000 or more separate units sold and delivered to at least 10 distinct customers based on publicly available information would count as being in production..." seems difficult to quantify and may need to be relaxed? @notarealuser

@ChristopherRandles I can maybe update that to 5 companies. I think when I wrote it, I was trying to avoid the scenarios such as Figure AI Partnership with BMW, and Tesla testing it's own humanoids.

Which even if were at scale, would be in development phase and not production.

Regarding Digit, it's really hard to find any concrete numbers on that. If they, have been able to find 4 customers, I doubt they will have trouble finding others this early in the race. If they are in production the companies working with them or Agility will have incentives to publish numbers.

@notarealuser
https://www.agilityrobotics.com/content/opening-robofab-worlds-first-factory-for-humanoid-robots
CORVALLIS, OR – September 18, 2023 – Agility Robotics, creator of the groundbreaking bipedal robot Digit, today revealed that the company is opening RoboFab™, a robot manufacturing facility in Salem, Oregon with the capability to produce more than 10,000 robots per year.
https://www.iotworldtoday.com/robotics/humanoid-robot-company-gets-help-to-grow-the-market
The site is expected to produce hundreds of Digit robots in the first year, with the capacity to scale to more than 10,000 of the robots annually.
Sept 2024

First deployment was June 2024.

19 months after first deployment we can't find numbers. Seems more like they don't want numbers revealed than "have incentives to publish numbers" to me? Yes, it is still possible that will change and there will be a big announcement when they reach 1000 robots on RaaS contracts or something similar.

Do RaaS contracts count as equivalent to 'sales'? Distinguishing short term from long term might be a pain.

@ChristopherRandles The conditions in the Resolution Criteria do not qualify for resolution unless all of them are met. Going into production means, if you can put money down they will sell it to you except special cases. Agility doesn't meet any of the conditions rn.

Regarding RAAS, If any* entity or a firm can pay for a robot to work for them, that qualifies as a sale.

@notarealuser
https://www.automotivemanufacturingsolutions.com/automation/toyota-canada-signs-humanoid-robot-deal-with-agility/2611551
Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada has signed a commercial Robots-as-a-Service agreement with Agility Robotics
"Seven Digit robots are scheduled to begin deployment in early April, a meaningful step up from the three that participated in the pilot.
...
What distinguishes Agility's position, for now at least, is its track record with major industrial customers. TMMC joins a roster that already includes GXO, the world's largest pure-play contract logistics provider, Schaeffler, and Amazon, each of which has moved beyond pilot agreements into some form of active deployment."

I am a bit confused about the reduction to 5 customers. Have we met that 5? or at least are close with 4 companies reaching "active deployment" per above ref?

The alternate interpretation to this could be that they could sell to 40 specific large companies but none of those sales would count as they are to specific companies.

So what is needed? Is it:

A. At least 1000 robots to 5 specific companies and one robot to a none-company consumer?
B. At least 1000 robots to customers who are not their first 5 specific buying companies?
C. At least 1000 robots to a large variety of companies? (How large a variety?)
or D something else?

Perhaps for condition 1, we have to ring up Agility to find out if they will do a RaaS contract with a small company? with an individual rather than a company? or something else

I thought condition 2 was mainly about 'preorders or orders without [in place of 'or'] deliveries' and Agility have passed that point because they are supplying the robots but you seem to be saying they don't pass this requirement yet presumably because of the 'specific companies' part. However that begs the question of when does a company cease to be a specific company. I don't get how this works. Are the first 5 purchasing companies specific companies and any after that are treated as qualifying customers or something else?

We now know of a single deployment of 7 digit robots which is obviously a long way short of 1000 so I don't think we know of enough numbers yet to resolve, however I am just trying to figure out what we would need to decide that is enough to resolve this question. Sorry if I am being thick in not being able to work this out.

sold Ṁ0 YES

GeoHotz coming in hot

@notarealuser resolution is a bit vague - are we talking delivers direct to consumer or to industry/commerical partners?

@OneGuy I think any should work.

@notarealuser what's the point of this market then if Agility's robots are already working in Amazon warehouses?

@notarealuser resolution should probably be more specific, consider how it's done here:

@Bair Agreed, that’s why I was asking the question. Digit has already been ‘delivered’ to Amazon for small scale pilots. They even have and advanced automation program for other enterprises looking to test and implement humanoid robot automation.

You could argue digit is already ‘delivering’ - then again, their new facilities are for commercial scale production rather than small pilots or testing.

@Bair Link to Agility Engagement Program where companies can already look to procure a Digit or ‘Robot as a service’ https://agilityrobotics.com/engagement

I think it is fair to say that the engagement program is not selling the robot, and at best pre-orders.

Quoting the website:

"The Agility Engagement Program is designed for companies that want to be at the forefront of our technology. The program gives your company first rights to the latest version of our products, and vital input to the continued development of our solution."

@Bair I will add to the Resolution Criteria that anyone should be able to purchase the robots, as that is what in effect going into production is.

bought Ṁ30 YES

Agility Robotic have partnerships with Amazon and last year announced they’ve already commenced work on a robot production facility in Oregon that will produce 10k robots a year at its peak production.

https://agilityrobotics.com/news/2023/opening-robofab-worlds-first-factory-for-humanoid-robotsnbsp-xxna2-g9mhr-rnk52

@OneGuy added the option.

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