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Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
11
Ṁ100Ṁ418
Dec 31
23%
chance

Will resolve based on official US Data. If that is not available will use whatever experts think is the next most reliable thing.

  • Update 2025-12-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the unemployment rate crosses above 6% at any point during 2026 (not based on the average for the year).

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Related market with a lower threshold: Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? Currently at 25%. If you think tariffs and DOGE layoffs create labor market stress, the 4.5% threshold triggers earlier and is more likely than 6%.

On average or just crossing 6% ? Unemployment rate can be noisy.

@KarlWang just crossing it

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