Background
The two-party-preferred count is the number of votes received by the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Coalition after preferences have been distributed. It is the headline figure of most opinion polls in Australia.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the party or coalition that, according to the Victorian Electoral Commission, wins a majority of the two-party-preferred vote at the 2026 general election for the Legislative Assembly in Victoria.
Further information
As the resolution of this market is unlikely to be subjective, I may trade in this market.
Update 2026-02-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on resolution:
This market will resolve based on the Labor vs Coalition 2PP count only, even if One Nation (or another party) becomes one of the two largest parties by first preference votes
If the Victorian Electoral Commission does not conduct a statewide Labor vs Coalition 2PP count (one that includes every electoral district), the market will be resolved to N/A (voided)
1,000@Jack1 great question, I do need to clarify this since it certainly seems plausible that One Nation could be first or second on first preference votes statewide.
I don't know what, if any, 2PP count the VEC will conduct. I don't think they're even required to do one. It's necessary to conduct a 2CP count in each individual seat, but the statewide 2PP count doesn't affect the outcome.
In theory, they could conduct multiple 2PP counts (Labor vs Coalition, Labor vs One Nation) or even a 3PP count (Labor vs Coalition vs One Nation) or none at all.
Given I've framed the market as Labor vs Coalition, and there's no way to change that, I think it makes sense to resolve this to the winner of the Labor vs Coalition 2PP count (if one is conducted) regardless of whether or not they are the two largest parties.
If there is no statewide Labor vs Coalition 2PP count, I will void the market. And by 'statewide', I mean one that includes every electoral district.