MANIFOLD
Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?
14
Ṁ1kṀ3k
2027
95%
South Africa
94%
Florida
94%
Texas
31%
Navajo Nation
22%
Italy
20%
Ukraine
10%
Poland
8%
Vietnam
5%
Cambodia

Resolution criteria

An option in this market will resolve YES if, at 23:59:00 local time on 1 January 2027, same-sex marriages have legal recognition in the named jurisdiction.

Each option will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

For the purpose of this market, a jurisdiction may recognise same-sex marriages without necessarily performing them. If, for example, a jurisdiction only recognises same-sex marriages performed extraterritorially, this is sufficient to resolve YES.

It is not sufficient, however, for a jurisdiction to allow informal same-sex marriages with no legal recognition.

I will not trade in this market.

Market context
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South Africa already recognises same sex marriages. So do Florida and Texas because they are bound by federal law.

@ToastCPT correct

Come on Italy. Italians in the UK seem kind of difficult sometimes, but generally absolutely fine, what is this bizarre medieval-like policy. To be fair it wasn't long ago it was like this in the UK too, and in an equally bizarre display it was the most barbaric politician I've ever seen in parliament, who then for some reason legalised it, possibly he wanted to try and trick people into thinking he was a decent human being.

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