Resolves yes if Gemini 3.1 tops the lmarena leader board without style control for over a week.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Gemini 3.1 ranks #1 on the LMArena text leaderboard without style control for a continuous period of at least 7 days. Resolution will be verified by checking the official leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. The market resolves NO if Gemini 3.1 fails to achieve or maintain this position for the required duration.

Background

Google swept LMArena's late-2025 rankings, with Gemini 3 Pro taking #1 in text, vision, and web development. Gemini 3 Pro became the first model to break 1500 Elo on LMArena's text leaderboard, holding #1 through December based on 15,871+ blind user votes. Without style control, evaluations don't adjust for response styles, such as length, verbosity, or formatting (e.g., markdown, lists).

Considerations

Elo shifts rapidly as new votes arrive and tuned variants enter the arena. Gemini 3.1 is a newer version than Gemini 3 Pro, and its performance relative to competing models on the leaderboard remains uncertain. The market specifies "without style control," which differs from the standard leaderboard view and may produce different rankings than what is commonly reported.

This description was generated by AI.