Resolves YES if Zack Polanski is leader of the Green Party going into the next UK general election (currently scheduled for August 2029) and NO otherwise.

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 80% chance (11 traders, as of Apr 19, 2026).

Will Polanski be leader of the Green Party going into the next UK general election?

Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?

If Zack Polanski becomes leader of the Green Party (UK), how many Labour MPs will defect to the Greens?

If Zack Polanski is not leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?

2% chance

If Zack Polanski is leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?

6% chance

Will Zack Polanski be leader of the Green Party after the next leadership election?

74% chance

Will Zack Polanski stand in a by election before the next UK general election?

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

27% chance

Will Zack Polanski contest a seat in a Parliamentary By-Election before the next General Election?

44% chance

Will the Green Party of England and Wales consistently poll >=20% in 2026?

81% chance

If this person is leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election, will the PM be Reform?