MANIFOLD
How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 5k)?
12
Ṁ275Ṁ2.1k
Mar 20
5,426 deaths
expected
0.2%
Under 1,000
0.1%
1,000 - 1,499
0.3%
1,500 - 1,999
0.3%
2,000 - 2,499
0.3%
2,500 - 2,999
0.5%
3,000 - 3,499
0.3%
3,500 - 3,999
0.2%
4,000 - 4,499
0.5%
4,500 - 5,000
97%
Over 5,000

Resolution criteria

Resolves by the same standards as this market but with different buckets.

Market context
Middle East
Iran
Death
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

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Sort by:

Current count appears to be 4,902.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The Sunday Times reports 16.5k

https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-young-protesters-news-nsdztp5t2

bought Ṁ10 YES

It's over 25000 already.

Resolve please

@Alva This would not yet resolve as over 5,000 per the conditions of the original market as it currently stands. Condition a) does not fulfill 5,000+, so per condition b), the current count is 2,615.

bought Ṁ50 NO

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iranian-mp-warns-greater-unrest-urging-government-address-grievances-2026-01-13/

People are also trading

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2% chance
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70,107
How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 10k)?
14,339
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
-11% 1d32% chance
Will the Iranian protests end tragically?
74% chance
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Death toll of Iranian regime killings Jan. 8 and 9, 2026?
14,964
Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?
89% chance
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
29% chance
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