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MANIFOLD
What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)
37
Ṁ2.1kṀ2.7k
Jul 21
90%
Someone gets 42
78%
China 6 golds
73%
USA second place
70%
Problem 3 or 6 is combinatorics
64%
Bronze cutoff is at least 16
57%
At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold
53%
At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver
52%
Silver cutoff is at least 24
51%
At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze
50%
Problem 2 or 5 is combinatorics
49%
Problem 2 or 5 is geometry
48%
Gold cutoff is at least 30
45%
Problem 2 or 5 is number theory
45%
Problem 2 or 5 is algebra
39%
Problem 1 or 4 has a strictly less than 60% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)
37%
Problem 1,2,4, or 5 has a strictly less than 25% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)
35%
A country scores 126 on a day
31%
At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem
29%
Jat will fakesolve a problem YAEH
27%
USA 6 golds

What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.

In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025

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I need your guys' opinion: should I include unofficial russia scores for the country rank bets?

@Wintersfan I think Russia is official this year?

@DottedCalculator Oh wow, I am not aware of that, we will see later

@RaymondChristopherTanto Source is https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jul/19/can-a-common-denominator-unite-warring-contestant-nations-at-the-international-mathematics-olympiad-ntwnfb

bought Ṁ20 NO

@E142 vacuously false

bought Ṁ20 YES

@Incompleteusern FREE MANA!

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 40% order

@Incompleteusern FREE MANA!

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Incompleteusern STOP!

@RaymondChristopherTanto

These are the stats I compiled from 2005-2025, a problem 1/2/4/5 that has <25% solve rate used to be common but is very rare nowadays.

(I hope I compiled the stats correctly lol, I did it manually. Again, a solve is defined as at least 5 points)

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