Nah this switch up is crazy 💀💀

See also: https://manifold.markets/burkh4rt/will-the-next-us-president-elected

Social security actuarial table
Trump 6 yr survival (rounding his age up to 77 because he's fat): 36,224/53,685=0.674
Biden 6yr survival: 26,518/45,397=0.584

conjunction = 0.674*0.584 = 0.393

But then you have to adjust upward a lot for SES. This actuarial table overestimated congress' annual death rates by 4x. Going long at 53%

@JonathanRay
Redoing this with the new social security actuarial table using the new base date of early 2026:
Trump 79->82 = 41,816/50,479 = 0.828
Biden 83->86 = 29,089/38,722 = 0.75122669283

conjunction = 0.828*0.751 = 0.621
(ignoring a little covariance where they could both get killed by the same event)

Since these are rich and famous people the social security actuarial table will wildly overestimate their death rates so I'm bidding this up.

Biden: Age 86 then

Trump: Age 82 then

Carter: Age 98, still chugging along

Bush: Age 94

Reagan: Age 93

Ford: Age 93

Nixon: 64

LBJ: Age 64

Kennedy: 46

Eisenhower: 78

Truman: 88

Roosevelt: 63

Hoover: 90

It seems like they usually live a lot. 6 of the 11 lived past 86.

@MP Nixon 81

@SirSquax Longer if you condition on them already having lived to be 76 and 80.

~55.5% chance if it were random American 76 and 80 year old males

76 year old male: (1-0.026831)*(1-0.029855)*(1-0.033151)*(1-0.036829)*(1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683/5) = ~79.6%

80 year old male: (1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683)*(1-0.057896)*(1-0.064863)*(1-0.072731)*(1-0.081626/5) = ~69.7%

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

@PatMyron They're definitely not random. They're former presidents! We try to keep those alive as long as possible.

@Quate "Take the first eight Presidents, for example – the average lifespan was 79.8 years, during a time when life expectancy at birth for men was less than 40 years old."

Rounding off and extrapolating to today's life expectancy, presidents should live to 154.