How many distinct companies will hold the spot for [my favorite language model for >= 1 contiguous month] in 2026? | Manifold

How many distinct companies will hold the spot for [my favorite language model for >= 1 contiguous month] in 2026?

3

Ṁ150Ṁ159

Dec 31

6%

1

17%

2

26%

3

21%

4

17%

5

13%

6+

My favorite model to interact with personally as I e.g. do work, not my favorite to fine-tune or use for many calls via API to e.g. label data. If a company produces Model that is my favorite and then they produce Model+ which I switch to, that counts as contiguous.

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Favourite irrespective of size, or do you have a preference for stuff like speed, being open source, being locally hosted? Small local models have a quickly shifting SOTA but less so for frontier models ig

@Bayesian Updated the description to clarify this some amount. I think that speed is a factor for personal use, open source is less of a factor although I do care a minor amount about privacy. I think it is unlikely being locally hosted will matter but it seems possible.

I think that OpenAI via GPT-4, Anthropic via Claude 3.5/6, OpenAI maybe via o1 family, and Google via Gemini 2.5 Pro would have qualified previously.

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