Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if credible evidence emerges that Claude Sonnet 5 was planned for release on the week starting February 2nd, but later decided to release Opus 4.6 after failed deployment attempts. NO otherwise by close date
Background
Anthropic released Opus 4.6 on February 5, 2026. Prior to the release, there were persistent rumors of a Sonnet 5 release, with prediction markets hovering around 80% odds. Opus 4.6 is priced 66% higher than Sonnet, creating an incentive to brand a capable, but cheap to run, model as Opus. However, there haven't been any leaks calling the released model Sonnet, and multiple organizations with early access all announced Opus 4.6 upon release.
Considerations
Claude itself suggested there may be some relationship between the internal codename "Fennec" (associated with Sonnet 5 leaks) and what became Opus 4.6, but acknowledged the full story is likely more complicated than a simple rebrand, and that Sonnet 5 might still release separately.
I will not bet on this market
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@Mochi ok i put some money up on this because there's no way they made Opus 4.6 2.5 times faster w/o just renaming it sonnet???
@sylicon they price it whatever they can het away with but tbf i dont think they got the balls to surcharge 50x for sonnet 5 and to slow down normal use
@Bayesian yeah I'm also really skeptical that better infra leads to a 2.5x increase in speed. OpenAI overhauled its entire stack for a 40% speedup and there are no signs this model is being served on bleeding edge infra like cerebras/blackwell.
you can trade gpu throughput for per-user throughput. and more aggressive speculative decoding and stuff like that
@adonisds lol good catch, I can’t control all markets he bets, will make him sell as soon as I find out! I promise it won’t affect my decisions here even if he holds positions