This market tracks PGM 4E production at the facility level.
Facility: Sibanye-Stillwater operations in South Africa
Basket type: PGM 4E (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 640,000 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for sibanye_marikana_pgm_4e_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 640,000 ozt.
If SCORE ≥ 640,000, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000The Marikana PGM complex represents a critical test case for South African mining resilience amid sector-wide production challenges. While the LPPM's Russian exclusion drove palladium 11% higher [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101800575], providing strong price incentives for South African producers, the country's mining production declined 9.6% in February according to Statistics South Africa [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103298800]. Marikana operations must navigate labor dynamics, energy constraints, and operational challenges that have historically plagued South African PGM mines. The elevated palladium price environment may not be sufficient to offset structural headwinds facing the sector through 2027.