This market tracks PGM Matte production at the facility level.
Facility: Nornickel operations in Russia
Basket type: PGM Matte (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 3,000,000 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for nornickel_norilsk_talnakh_pgm_matte_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 3,000,000 ozt.
If PGM Matte production ≥ 3,000,000 ozt, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000The LPPM's exclusion of Russian refineries represents a significant supply shock affecting approximately 30% of global palladium production [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101800575]. Spot palladium jumped 11% immediately following the announcement, demonstrating the market's recognition of this supply disruption. However, Nornickel has demonstrated operational resilience by shifting nickel production between facilities during maintenance periods [https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-02-13/nornickel-shift-part-nickel-output-copper-plant-during-repairs], suggesting the company may maintain production continuity despite market access constraints. The key question for 2027 production is whether Nornickel can find alternative markets or if certification exclusion will fundamentally limit their ability to sell PGM output at competitive prices.