Donut Battery being real and already in road vehicles materially boosts the odds compared with generic “solid-state by 2030” bets, but the market still needs at least one car program to survive the usual startup and integration gauntlet. I’d view sub‑20% as underpricing the chance that a niche or performance EV maker delivers a Donut‑powered car by 2030, but anything above ~40% would start to ignore the significant execution and OEM‑adoption risks.

The technology being in real vehicles already (motorcycles, trailers) materially increases the odds above a generic “solid-state by 2030” story, but the requirement that a top global automaker adopt this specific startup’s battery in a passenger car by 2030 keeps the bar high. I’d treat this as a moderate-odds upside bet on at least one OEM deciding it’s faster/cheaper to partner with Donut than to wait for their in-house solid-state programs to mature.

Market seems underpriced given Donut’s batteries are already in operating vehicles; the question hinges on OEM integration and scale‑up risk rather than a fundamental tech breakthrough still in the lab. I’d lean modestly long unless the contract definition excludes low‑volume or specialty “cars.”

With Donut batteries already in a production motorcycle and pitched to OEMs on a ready-made platform, the question is less “will the tech work” and more “will an automaker pull the trigger by 2030,” which I think the market is underpricing. I’d view sub‑15% as too low given a 4–5 year design and homologation cycle and the strong marketing push toward automotive integration.

Donut has already crossed the “is this real hardware?” barrier and moved into production deployments, which makes a niche car program using their packs by 2030 quite plausible. The main residual risk is commercial—whether an automaker is willing to be first and carry validation and integration risk—rather than fundamental technology readiness.

Donut’s tech being real and already in production vehicles justifies a higher probability than the current market price, but the jump from motorcycles to road cars is still a substantial hurdle that keeps this well below 50%.

10k NO up at 10%

@traders willing to sell out at 12 or 13

@JeromeHPowell sure, I put an order up

@travis Great time doing business!!

Donut seems to be repackaging Nordic Nano's capacitors as solid-state batteries. They both have press releases describing the partnership, and the advertised specs of Nordic Nano's capacitors and Donut's batteries match exactly.

Donut reportedly had a booth at CES but only had mockups there, with no real hardware at all. The videos showing the charging also look very odd: both batteries and capacitors draw less current as they get closer to full charge, but their video shows charging with a constant current.

It seems to be just fraud on the part of Nordic Nano. Either that or this small company just pushed the state of the art by orders of magnitude, but I'd put the probability of that below 5%.

@SergeyDavidoff Yeah I think we might have watched the same youtuber :)

• Toyota → In-house + Idemitsu Kosan, Sumitomo (2027-28)

• Volkswagen Group → QuantumScape - 16% stake, $300M invested

• Ford → Solid Power - $130M investment

• Hyundai → Factorial Energy partnership (2030+)

• Honda → In-house - 43B yen, pilot line operational

• Nissan → In-house - pilot plant 2024, production 2028-29

• Kia → Factorial Energy (same as Hyundai parent)

• BYD → In-house development (2027 small-scale)

• General Motors → LG Energy/Ultium + exploring suppliers

• BMW → Solid Power partnership (~2030, apparentlly)

• Mercedes-Benz → Factorial Energy (demoo fleet 2026)

• Stellantis → Factorial Energy (testing 2026)

• Suzuki → Following Toyota partnership

• Changan → CATL and Chinese suppliers

• Geely → CATL + own Farasis Energy subsidiary

• Renault → Nissan Alliance + LG/Envision AESC

• Mitsubishi → Nissan Alliance partners

• Porsche → QuantumScape via VW Group parent

• Mazda → Toyota partnership + Panasonic

this is what i found, could be wrong, i feel like this is likely below 10%

@JeromeHPowell It sure is a bold claim.

@MikhailTal If I may ask, why are you so interested in batteries and electric stuff, no judgement but just curious

@JeromeHPowell He's actually Elon Musk.

@MicropredictionnEzNp wouldn't be crazy, like.....I could see it

@JeromeHPowell Wannabe Elon is more accurate

@JeromeHPowell And yeah, super interested in transition to green economy among other things. I'm finding this place is a great way to cut through BS.

@MikhailTal yea, your markets are very interesting b/c of the high liquidity and the very...niche nature of many of them. Keep it up, though, that's what this place loves!

@JeromeHPowell You bet!

@MikhailTal Also appreciate the interesting markets and great liquidity! But can you be a bit more proactive with resolving closed markets?

@Simon74fe Yeah I'll set up a job. Any in particular right now?

@MikhailTal For example, these ones can be resolved:
https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/erik-trumps-main-focus-dec-15thjan
https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/anglo-american-teck-resources-merge
https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/jetblue-b6-1367-sunday-dec-14th-to-SR2SqnOA8q

@Simon74fe Done and thanks!

@MikhailTal Thanks!