Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on March 31, 2025, a reliable source (e.g., Reuters or an official CATL/partner disclosure) reports that CATL has resumed production at any of its Yichun, Jiangxi lithium operations (mining at Jianxiawo and/or lithium carbonate refinery output). Either mine restart or refinery output restart qualifies. Later stoppages after the deadline do not affect resolution. Verification examples: Reuters on Feb 7 and Feb 11, 2025 reporting CATL’s Jiangxi/Yichun lithium mine and refinery resuming operations. (reuters.com)

• Resolve NO if no such restart is reported by the deadline.

Background

• CATL controls lithium resources and processing in Yichun (“lithium capital” of China), including the Jianxiawo lepidolite mine and a refinery JV (with Lopal Tech). Reuters reported a restart of the Jiangxi/Yichun mine on Feb 7, 2025, and confirmed the mine and refinery were reopened on Feb 11, 2025, with output >2,000 t/month and plans to ramp above 3,000 t/month. (reuters.com)

• A separate suspension occurred later due to a license expiry on Aug 9, 2025; this post-deadline event is irrelevant for this market’s resolution. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• “Yichun Lithium” here refers to CATL’s lithium mining/refining in Yichun (e.g., Jianxiawo mine and associated refinery), not a generic regional industry or unrelated listed entities. Evidence may cite Yichun or Jiangxi; Yichun is within Jiangxi and Reuters explicitly links the restart to CATL’s Yichun operations. (reuters.com)

  Resolution criteria

  • Resolve YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on March 31, 2026, a reliable source (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, official CATL/Lopal disclosures or exchange filings) reports that CATL has resumed production at any of its Yichun, Jiangxi lithium operations—either mining at the Jianxiawo lepidolite mine or lithium carbonate refinery output. Later stoppages before or after the deadline do not negate a prior resumption. (reuters.com)

  • Resolve NO if no such resumption is reported by the deadline.

  • “Reported” means a clear statement that production is underway (not merely “expected” or “plans to resume”). The Feb 11, 2025 Reuters report quoting Lopal that the mine and refinery were producing >2,000 t/month (with plans >3,000 t/month) is an example of qualifying evidence. (reuters.com)

  Background

  • Reuters reported on Feb 7, 2025 that CATL was resuming operations at its Jiangxi (Yichun) lepidolite mine, based on SMM/UBS; on Feb 11, 2025 Reuters reported the mine and the Lopal JV refinery had reopened and were producing >2,000 t/month, with a planned ramp >3,000 t/month. Bloomberg (Feb 10, 2025) reported the refinery restart with ~3,500 t output expected that month. (reuters.com)

  • CATL suspended the Yichun mine again after its license expired on Aug 9, 2025; this later halt does not affect whether a restart occurred before Mar 31, 2026. (reuters.com)

  Considerations

  • Sources may say “Jiangxi” instead of “Yichun”; Yichun is within Jiangxi and the cited reports explicitly tie the restart to CATL’s Yichun operations. (reuters.com)

  • Either mine restart or lithium carbonate refinery output restart qualifies; analyst speculation or “expected to resume” headlines alone are insufficient without a report that production is underway. (reuters.com)