Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026? | Manifold

Will a general-purpose CHERI CPU ship ≥10,000 units by end of 2026?

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2027

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This market resolves YES if a commercially available CPU implementing full CHERI capability-based memory protection ships at least 10,000 units to customers by December 31, 2026.

Resolution Criteria:

CPU must be capable of running a general-purpose OS (e.g., Linux, FreeBSD, or Windows).
CHERI support means hardware-enforced capabilities per the CHERI architecture developed by the University of Cambridge.
“Shipped” means physically delivered to customers or integrators (not just manufactured or pre-ordered).
Units shipped can be documented via press releases, credible news sources, financial filings, or direct statements from vendors.

Development boards (e.g., Arm Morello) only count if publicly sold in quantity and meet the above criteria. This market will resolve NO if no qualifying shipment is confirmed by the deadline.

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Very similar prediction by LaurieWired https://youtu.be/cnX5zJ_qGz0?t=624 "~40% odds of a mass produced consumer device, like an IoT hub or something, ships with a CHERI-enabled processor in 2026."

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