How many people will ICE/CBP kill in 2026?
8
Ṁ250Ṁ4242027
11.2 people
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1%
1
7%
2 - 3
19%
4 - 5
21%
6 - 8
15%
9 - 11
9%
12 - 14
9%
15 - 17
6%
18 - 20
14%
Above 20
This refers to people killed "in the street" not in detention centers.
Here is the current count as of 1/26/26: 2
1/7/26: Renee Good
1/24/26: Alex Jeffrey Pretti
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
ICE kills another US citizen by end of February 2026
4% chance
Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?
9% chance
ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?
30% chance
Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?
73% chance
How many U.S. civilians will be killed by federal law enforcement agents in 2026?
763
Will police in the usa kill more people in 2026 than in 2025?
65% chance
Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?
67% chance
What is the largest number of people US federal law enforcement will kill in a single incident before January 20, 2029?
Will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50% in 2025?
96% chance
ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)
87% chance
Sort by:
@MichaeldelaMaza my question is about intent.
I could interpret this as only applying to people intentionally killed by ice in the street or in pursuit. I could interpret this as the above and those intentionally killed in custody, or I could interpret it as all people who died while in custody or while interacting with ICE.
People are also trading
Related questions
ICE kills another US citizen by end of February 2026
4% chance
Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?
9% chance
ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?
30% chance
Will ICE or CBP kill another civilian, which sparks at least one protest, by the end of January 2027?
73% chance
How many U.S. civilians will be killed by federal law enforcement agents in 2026?
763
Will police in the usa kill more people in 2026 than in 2025?
65% chance
Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?
67% chance
What is the largest number of people US federal law enforcement will kill in a single incident before January 20, 2029?
Will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50% in 2025?
96% chance
ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)
87% chance