Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? | Manifold

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

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Ṁ1kṀ809

Dec 31

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Resolution criteria:

A "YES" outcome requires that a credible source (e.g. a government agency such as the USDA-APHIS) confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the contiguous United States has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax), before January 1st 2027 at 00:00 GMT. Infections in humans do not count. Similarly, infections in pets, livestock, or otherwise captive or confined animals do not count. However, infections in feral animals (such as feral cats) will count. An example of what would qualify as a "YES" if it happened again, is the outbreak among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016.

I will not bet on this question.

Useful background:

- According to APHIS, the New World screwworm has been spreading northward from the current barrier zone along the Darién Gap in Panama.

- Climate change seems to be contributing to an expansion of habitat suitability northward in the Americas.

- See here for a summary of recent developments and attempts to combat the spread of the parasite.

See also this related question:

Market context

Effective Altruism

Wild Animal Welfare

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In case it is useful: In a paper published in April 2025 (Zaldivar-Gomez et al. 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vprsr.2025.101220 ), the estimated pace of northward spread of the New World screwworm was around 1.9 km/day (estimated using data from 2022 to late 2024).

Human not a wild animal?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Correct, humans are not considered wild animals here.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/10/mexicos-claudia-sheinbaum-blasts-us-screwworm-response-as-exaggerated

bought Ṁ10 NO

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