Kalshi availability is region dependant, bunch of douches, probably not as good as Manifold anyway, Manifold is great.

They have hearings on this rather often, don't they?

Kalshi up to 27.3% @traders !

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-20/trump-says-us-will-release-files-on-aliens-and-ufos

Does anyone have a good explanation of why the Kalshi market (and this one) are so high? Is it mostly the President Obama interview thing? Or is it genuine?

@DylanRichardson To be honest I don't really know! My best guesses are:

1. People betting that one of the many possible verification sources (see https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/ALIENS.pdf) is a nutjob who will claim aliens exist with no proof

2. People thinking the Obama interview qualifies for a YES resolution (it doesn't)

3. People legitimately believing aliens exist and willing to put their money where their mouth is

I'm holding NO on Kalshi, we'll see but I do think 1) is a non-zero risk I'm taking

@LeoA that's basically where I'm at with this. Looks like insider trading is prohibited, but the fact that obvious safe guards are not in place (eg no requirements against backtracking, no requirements for new evidence to be presented, ability for any one source to resolve it even if others deny) all makes me think the market maker is more motivated to resolve in favor than I would naively expect.