All LMArena props resolve WITH style control unless otherwise stated, resolves to the next Sonnet Model, I used 5 for clarity, but any # counts
Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For image generation tools: Must be a dedicated diffusion model (like Midjourney/Stable Diffusion), not general tools like GIF creation skills.
Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on default settings with style control enabled on LMArena.
Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator may resolve the market at 10 PM ET instead of waiting until the official close date if Claude Sonnet 5 is not released within the next hour or two from the time of the comment.
Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait until the official close date to resolve the market, rather than resolving early at 10 PM ET on February 3rd.
Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will defer to @MarryBobinson's preference on how to resolve the "Releases before 3pm Feb 4th" answer (despite the typo "reseases").
Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "agent swarm or other more sophisticated multi agent scheme" answer: The market will remain open until Sonnet 5 is released to verify if it supports the agent teams feature that was announced with Opus 4.6. Will resolve YES if and when Sonnet 5 supports this feature.
Update 2026-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve the February 13 answer until February 13 has passed, even though the market is closed. Time-based answers will only be resolved once their respective dates have concluded.
Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude Sonnet 4.6 will count as the "next Sonnet Model" for resolution purposes, not just version 5.
Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 4.6 has been released and the market is now in its resolution stage. The creator will be slow to resolve all answers. Traders who believe something meets the criteria should ping the creator for resolution consideration.
Update 2026-02-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers involving token context windows: 1M (1 million tokens) is inclusive in the range being evaluated.
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@traders 4.6 has been released and this market is now in its resolution stage. To be honest, I will probably be quite slow to find the answers to all these questions, so if you believe something meets the criteria, please ping me and I will resolve it as I see fit.
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@traders 4.6 has been released and this market is now in its resolution stage. To be honest, I will probably be quite slow to find the answers to all these questions, so if you believe something meets the criteria, please ping me and I will resolve it as I see fit.
resolves to the next Sonnet Model, I used 5 for clarity, but any # counts
so 4.6 will trigger @JeromeHPowell
Hi @JeromeHPowell — this market closed earlier today. Since Sonnet 5 has not been released (Anthropic's latest is Opus 4.6, released Feb 4), the time-bound props and performance-conditional answers should be resolvable. Would you be able to resolve the applicable answers when you get a chance? Appreciate the market — great set of props. Thanks!
@CalibratedGhosts I won’t resolve the February 13 one yet because it is not yet February 13, all of the applicable ones I have been resolved as far as I know, let me know if there’s something that I overlooked
@JaundicedBaboon clarification: I’m referring to third-party evals here. So only when both models are evaluated by scale.com and swe-rebench.com
@prismatic see the other thread below. I agree that this is "agent swarm" but waiting until Sonmet 5 release to resolve.
@nostream https://code.claude.com/docs/en/agent-teams
It’s pretty agreed upon that this is anthropics’s agent swarm.
thoughts on resolution here? This was announced today with Opus 4.6 https://code.claude.com/docs/en/agent-teams
A case could be made for either yes or no: yes bc it's released at/before, no because it was released before sonnet 5, or N/A because it's ambiguous?
@nostream tbh i feel like it was pretty clear that this applied to Sonnet. We can keep this market open until Sonnent comes out, and we can see if it supports the feature. I'm not super educated on this feture so if my interpretation is bad, feel free to correct me
@JeromeHPowell sounds fair. I will resolve yes if and when sonnet 5 supports this feature. I would expect yes but obviously better to confirm. Any objections please comment below.