Will a famous person bet on this market?

363

Ṁ10kṀ200k

Feb 28

57%

chance

ALL

For them to be famous, they have to have a Wikipedia page with 1000+ words (body text only, not subtitles, tables, captions, etc.) or a social media account with 1m+ followers/subscribers.

It has to be proven that the person is who they say they are. Vandalizing a Wikipedia page to increase a page's word count or using bots to increase a user's follower count is invalid.

The bet must occur before March 1, UTC.

Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Wikipedia pages, the bibliography section does not count as part of the main text when calculating the 1000+ word requirement.

Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The famous person themselves must make the bet - they cannot authorize someone else to bet on their account on their behalf.

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If a famous person bets on the famous person market, who will it be?

"Famous person" market prop bets [Add Answers!]

When will the "famous person" market resolve YES?

129 Comments

331 Holders

1.9k Trades

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Can we have someone who knows @LuigiMangione proxy bet on this market?

This market not being league ranked means that winnings don't contribute to your rank in the leagues?

If so, sucks for me

bought Ṁ600 NO

@MIMIRMAGNVS yeah thats wat it means. grim

opened a Ṁ14,017 YES at 65% order

@CrypticQccZ I think you know more than you let on. Alea iacta est!

@Quroe Which direction are you crossing the Rubicon, toward Rome, or away from it?

opened a Ṁ277 NO at 93% order

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Time will tell.

@Quroe Well, here we are turning toward the witching hour... I was expecting action, but "not like this"...

Create a new version of this market that ends in April or May. I'll bet on it. The current timeline is too short.

https://manifold.markets/Desert/if-a-famous-person-bets-on-the-famo

HODL YES holders.

The "Famous Person" Dashboard

bought Ṁ40 NO

Still nobody famous yet?

@AlanTennant with the graph trending NO, now... there's more upside to a delayed reveal, no? I mean, yes? 😆

Woah, wait, this is League ranked?! @mods, can we get confirmation on if this is correct?

@Quroe It was, it shouldn't be. I turned it off, thank you for the ping! @ItsMe Please remember to set markets like this as unranked at creation in the future. Thanks!