Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ172Sep 30
48%
chance
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Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
Source signal: AP News (March 26, 2026): Trump claims Iran is eager to deal while Tehran dismisses his ceasefire plan. Both sides hardening positions; Iran grips Strait of Hormuz. AP-NORC poll: most Americans say US military action against Iran gone too far.
Why this matters: A US-Iran nuclear deal would reshape 2026 geopolitics—oil prices, Middle East stability, US foreign policy. Under-covered in prediction markets despite high verifiability.
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