If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
29
Ṁ100Ṁ1.3kDec 31
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve N/A if the US does not strike Iran before July 1, 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
16% chance
Will the US and Iran jointly announce a nuclear framework agreement by June 30, 2026?
45% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
25% chance
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
43% chance
Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?
16% chance
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
15% chance
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
15% chance
Will the US conduct additional airstrikes on Iranian soil before April 25, 2026?
99% chance
Will the US and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework by July 1, 2026?
51% chance
If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
15% chance