This market predicts whether Cuba’s current one-party communist regime ceases to govern the country before the end of 2026.
For the purposes of this market, “regime collapse” refers to a loss of effective political control by the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), not merely protests, economic deterioration, or leadership reshuffles within the same power structure.
✅ Resolves YES if any of the following occur before December 31, 2026:
The PCC formally loses its constitutional monopoly on power
A non-PCC government (interim or permanent) assumes control of the Cuban state
Miguel Díaz-Canel resigns, flees, or is removed and is not replaced by another PCC hardliner
Binding, multiparty national elections are announced with a credible and public timeline
The Cuban Armed Forces (FAR) or security apparatus openly break with the PCC and enable a transfer of power
❌ Resolves NO if:
Large protests or unrest occur but the PCC retains power
Leadership changes remain internal to the PCC or military elite
Economic collapse, shortages, blackouts, or migration waves intensify without political transition
Temporary emergency rule or repression restores regime control
📰 Resolution criteria
This market will be resolved based on clear reporting from major international news organizations (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, El País), official Cuban government statements, and/or recognition by major foreign governments or international bodies.
Ambiguous or disputed outcomes will be resolved conservatively.
📚 Background (for context)
Cuba has been governed by a one-party communist system since 1959. Real political and economic power today is concentrated in the Communist Party, the Cuban Armed Forces (FAR), and military-run conglomerates such as GAESA, which controls large segments of tourism, retail, ports, and hard-currency flows.
In recent years, Cuba has faced:
Chronic fuel and electricity shortages
Sharp declines in oil imports and foreign currency reserves
Record-high emigration
Periodic mass protests (notably July 2021)
Increasing reliance on repression and emergency measures
This market does not predict economic hardship or unrest per se, but whether those pressures result in a true political rupture of the current regime.
1,000People are also trading
I'm hearing a lot of noise of a supposed transitional government being negotiated between the US and Cuba, said transition would be coordinated by Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raul Castro.
None of this has been confirmed by any trusted news sources and its barely speculations but I've heard it from about 3 different people on the internet. Additional to these claims I've read that the communist regime would flee to Russia and free elections would be established in less than a year.
https://www.laprensa.hn/mundo/hijo-de-raul-el-negociador-secreto-de-cuba-con-eua-FALP1056210?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.elcolombiano.com/internacional/cuba-fidel-castro-alejandro-castro-cia-mexico-estados-unidos-dialogos-BD33305015
https://x.com/DeniseMeadeG/status/2018686902937727350
I couldn't really find articles in english for you guys, to me this shows how speculative and unconfirmed these claims are but you never know.
@traders
“The collapse lies in the imperial mindset, but not in the mindset of the Cubans, ...” “I know we are going to live through difficult times, but we will overcome them together with creative resilience.” - President of Cuba Diaz Canel on the 5th of February at a press confernce
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article314588864.html
@traders
PERSONAL OPINION:
It’s very rare for Cuba to hold a press conference like this, and due to the deterioration of relations between the US and Cuba, the collapse of the electrical supply, and a plethora of other problems, people were expecting a major announcement such as democratization, a change in leadership, or anything of substance that would indicate change. Instead, we got a staged, prerecorded press conference with zero confrontational questions that resembles more of a propaganda event rather than an actual press conference.
AP and other outlets report worsening energy shortages, with fuel scarcity causing transport breakdowns, rising costs, and blackouts that closely resemble conditions that historically spark unrest. ʻSacrifices’ are being publicly demanded by President Díaz-Canel.
https://apnews.com/article/cuba-economy-oil-crisis-us-6b2b44a4818616bbc542b7b63159a47b
@traders
"Trump says US is ‘starting to talk to Cuba’ as he moves to cut its oil supplies"
https://apnews.com/article/cuba-trump-oil-venezuela-talks-mexico-b4237de7a66adc4524a2abade5e0df38
President Donald Trump said the United States was beginning to talk with Cuban leaders as his administration puts greater pressure on the communist-run island and cuts off key oil supplies.
@traders
Big flooding in Havana as windspeeds reached up to 82 km/h and with max wave heights of 4 meters around midnight.
The main area affected seems to be Vedado and must have rechead Linea at least
https://www.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-02-01-u1-e199370-s27061-nid319815-severas-inundaciones-malecon-habana
https://www.facebook.com/100000102987548/posts/26482368311349908/?rdid=mSLFYFttGWG2Rseq#
My guess is that this whole area surrounded in red is flooded or at least with some level of water
Combined with the very unusual low temperatures right now in Havana people are really having a hard time.
https://apnews.com/article/oil-cuba-tariffs-trump-mexico-30f1d74a766fee23001684a5bb8079d9
@traders
"President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order that would impose a tariff on any goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba, a move that could further cripple an island plagued by a deepening energy crisis."