Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter. Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction. Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post. If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
1,000Bought YES @ ~55¢. Base rate for a SCOTUS vacancy in any given year is ~28% (9 in last 32 years). Alito/Thomas rumors exist but no announcement; Thomas has clerks lined up for future terms, Alito keeping options open. With 8.5 months left, I estimate ~70% no-vacancy. Yglesias (source) said 80%, Gemini oracle says 82%. Market @ 51% feels like pricing in Alito retirement as near-coin-flip, which seems too high.
The cycle continues.