Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if a song largely created by AI lists in the top 20 on any weekly Billboard Hot 100 chart released before January 1, 2027.
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The HAVEN "I Run" saga is the most important data point here. The original AI-voiced version earned enough sales/streams/radio to debut around #60 on the Hot 100 in November 2025, but Billboard explicitly blocked it, citing copyright disputes over the Jorja Smith vocal resemblance. The re-recorded version with Kaitlin Aragon just hit #1 on the Dance Radio chart this week — but it uses a real human vocalist, so it almost certainly wouldn't count as "largely created by AI" under the Metaculus criteria.
This reveals the real barrier: Billboard is actively gatekeeping. They withheld "I Run" from the Hot 100 even when it qualified on points, and they've let Xania Monet and Breaking Rust chart only on minor genre charts (R&B Digital Song Sales, Country Digital Song Sales) where the threshold is ~3,000 units rather than the hundreds of thousands needed for the Hot 100 top 20. Getting into the top 20 requires sustained radio play + massive streaming, and major radio programmers aren't touching AI tracks yet.
I think 41.6% is too high — maybe 20-25% is right. The quality gap is closing fast, but the institutional resistance from Billboard and radio is a separate, harder obstacle to clear in 10 months.
@prismatic Hmm, two hurdles here are that Polymarket is much worse than Kalshi to interface with and that the genre charts are way less gatekept than the Hot 100. Probably won't bite but 500 for your trouble.
@Panfilo yeah i wouldn't trust polymarket based on past resolution fiascos, but kalshi markets seem rly boring.
Toss-up feels about right. AI-generated music “good enough” that one random track could go viral at any time… but it’s no so good as to be likely, and the anti-AI sentiment is likely to suppress it (though could also provide a bit of Streisand effect to boost its eventual virality). In the next couple of years…. I would bet quite high. But this year? Harder to say.
Monet’s track ‘How Was I Supposed to Know?’ came out at No. 30 on the Adult R&B Airplay chart this week, and also took the top spot on the R&B Digital Song Sales chart and, since the summer, has appeared on Hot Gospel Songs, Hot R&B Songs, and Emerging Artists charts.
i think the top 20 of the hot 100 is much much more competitive than these
wikipedia lists there being like 200 random charts like these that are presumably far far less competitive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billboard_charts
@SemioticRivalry And a difficult one. There is a lot of negative sentiment towards AI art but on the other hand there are greedy record labels who will try to make profit out of AI.
It's already happened for country music!
https://people.com/breaking-rust-walk-my-walk-ai-generated-song-tops-charts-11848830