MANIFOLD
[ACX 2026] How many days will the US government be shutdown in 2026?
37
Ṁ5.2kṀ57k
2027
44 days
expected
1%
0 - 4
4%
5 - 14
46%
15 - 29
31%
30 - 59
13%
60 - 99
4%
100 - 199
1.2%
200 - 365

Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.

Metaculus high-level description:

This question will resolve as the total number of days the United States federal government is in shutdown furlough status for any portion of the day, as announced by the US Office of Personnel Management, during 2026.

The question may also resolve according to credible sources in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.

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Metaculus high level description has changed to:

This question will resolve as the total number of days the United States federal government is in shutdown furlough status for any portion of the day, according to Wikipedia or other credible sources.

Will the market now follow this?

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@Lilemont the question states that it will resolve to metaculus resolution

bought Ṁ75 YES

Has this been resolved?

@Rhude_boy_soup this is about the single count for the whole year, with only one answer at the end of the year

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