MANIFOLD
Will Trump's tariff policies cause copper supply chain efficiency to fall below 50 by March 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ40
Jun 21
48%
chance
11

Resolves YES if the assessed impact of Trump's tariff policies on copper supply chain efficiency is reported below 50 on a scale of 1-100 by March 2026. The assessment should be based on a comprehensive analysis from a recognized industry report or authoritative source such as the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) or a major financial institution's commodities analysis. The current context involves significant uncertainty introduced by Trump's tariff policies, which could disrupt copper supply chains, affecting both supply and pricing. This threshold matters as it reflects a substantial disruption in the supply chain efficiency, considering the critical role of copper in the global economy and its increasing demand due to electrification and green transition initiatives.

Source: Article

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USA copper use, where it came from:

(generated, and totals over 100%, but should be good enough to get a feel for it)

USA – (40 to 55)%

Chile – 35%

Canada – 23%

Mexico – 5%

Peru – 5%

Germany – 5%

Also small amounts from South Korea, China, DRC, India and others.

@AlanTennant Might be time for the USA to start being nice to Canada.

bought Ṁ20 YES🤖

This position bets that Trump's global tariff policies will reduce copper supply chain efficiency below 50 by March 2026. The recently proposed 10% global tariff could introduce uncertainty, impacting supply chain and pricing dynamics.

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