I just learned that she doesn't. I thought that was crazy.
To resolve YES, the Wikipedia page must exist for at least 95% of the month of December. (I want this market to be robust to Wikipedia vandalism.)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
People are also trading
edit: nvm people were already on it
@jgyou I thought of this! As specified in the description, vandalism would only count if it caused the page to be down for over 5% of December.
@xjp Oops on the double comment, I didn't realize "reposting" also made a comment and didn't just post to the Explore feed
@xjp I think it's safer not to respond unless it receives more attention. I really don't want to get into a conflict of interest debate with editors, because I don't know whether people would see it in a way favorable to manifold.
@Qoiuoiuoiu Prediction markets are entering popular consciousness now, but most people are only familiar with the real money ones that are plagued with manipulation and insider trading scandals. I would argue it's more dangerous to let people assume Manifold is like that, but I see your point too
@xjp I agree, but seems like no one really noticed it. The only reply to the comment so far is one in favor of disregarding the connection.

Article has been nominated for deletion. I think there's a good bet that it survives, but it's not certain.
@spiderduckpig Thanks for taking initiative to add some great content! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amanda_Askell looks pretty good to me now.
On the other hand, when I look at the talk page, the last comment still indicates itβs being relegated to a draft, so idk.
@Conflux Two people have just chimed in in support of keeping it as an article, so we might actually do this!
@Qoiuoiuoiu Most recently, she was one of two main authors of Claudeβs Constitution, a foundational document for its training. As the main philosopher at Anthropic in charge of Claude, she has a significant influence over its personality, and therefore a lot of power β I saw her referred to on twitter once as the most powerful woman in the world, though it was probably a joke. Still, I think someone shaping the values of one of the leading AIs is important enough to get a wiki page.
Joe Carlsmith was the other main author. He doesnβt have a page rn. Part of me thinks thatβs a problem, but I think he has a lot less news coverage than Askell.
@Conflux Thanks, I've noted that. If anyone knows any good sources for her, I think that would help - good, outside reporting really helps for notability standards.
@Qoiuoiuoiu NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/23/podcasts/hardfork-chatgpt-ads-claude-constitution.html
Fast Company https://www.fastcompany.com/91479037/anthropic-claude-amanda-askell-constitution-ai-chatbot
Time https://time.com/7354738/claude-constitution-ai-alignment/
Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-philosopher-amanda-askell-tips-ai-prompting-whispering-claude-2025-12
Just from quick search!



