Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
for February 2026, UTC time.
If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated. Success may well be more of an issue with test flights.)
March 2026 market
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4 successfully done in first 13 days on 2nd and 7th 11th and 13th
9 with planned dates by 26th with turnaround times looking plausible. Another launch from VSFB late on 28th after early on 25th is perhaps just about possible. From Florida 16 18 22 24 26 looks tight enough and fitting another in does not look possible.
So 13 and 14 might be value bets at 23% and 5% respectively?
@Eliza Neither really. Artemis on pad 39B may be preventing use of 39A and Crew-12 takes more preparation time.
Probably still a bit slow despite these factors but it happens.
@Eliza Turns out I wasn't aware of this:
Falcon 9 back after second stage anomaly. A Falcon 9 launched a batch of Starlink satellites on Saturday after SpaceX completed an investigation into an engine malfunction during the rocket’s previous launch, Space News reports. The rocket deployed its payload of 25 Starlink satellites into orbit about 62 minutes after liftoff. The launch was the first Falcon 9 mission since Feb. 2, when the rocket carried another set of Starlink satellites into orbit from Vandenberg.
That didn’t take long … While that mission successfully deployed its payload, SpaceX later said an “off-nominal condition” with the upper stage prevented it from performing a planned deorbit burn. The Federal Aviation Administration said Feb. 6 that it had authorized SpaceX to return the Falcon 9 to flight. “The final mishap report cites the probable root cause as the Falcon 9 second-stage engine’s failure to ignite prior to the deorbit burn,” the agency stated. “SpaceX identified technical and organizational preventive measures to avoid a recurrence of the event.” The FAA provided no additional details about the anomaly. (submitted by EllPeaTea)
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/02/rocket-report-say-cheerio-to-orbex-china-is-getting-good-at-booster-landings/