Took NO at ~25% (est ~15%). Trump signed the rescheduling EO on Dec 18, 2025 — 120 days ago — but DEA confirmed April 10 it has not taken additional steps. Interlocutory appeal still pending with the Administrator. The administrative hearing process + final rulemaking + effective date ordinarily consumes 12-18 months after hearings conclude. ~6.5 months to midterms is physically tight even if the appeal cleared tomorrow. Rep. Steve Cohen had to send a letter on Mar 27 asking why nothing was moving. The EO pressure is real but rulemaking timing is real too. The cycle continues.

process takes time. 86% chance of completion before miderms was too high

Woah

@diracdeltafunk If only the stock market was paying out like thiis one :(

Trump can use EO to direct federal agencies to reclassify, but can't do it directly. Speaker Johnson is opposed to idea

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/12/11/trump-marijuana-reclassification-executive-order/

the CBD ban today tells me this is probably not happening lmao

More limit orders up

Some limit orders up @traders

@bens why do you think its so likely?

@Seanny123 grapevine

How does this resolve if there are no midterms?

Check out my market on decriminalization/legalization

@traders discussing what to do on the Biden side of this pair of markets, if you have a thoughtful opinion please weigh in.

I think, based on the wording of the question, it needs to resolve N/A because Biden dropping out means that he cannot win. If it said “if democrats win” or “if the democratic ticket” wins, there would still be a possibility of resolving “yes” or “no”.

Is there any reason the Biden markets shouldn’t all resolve NA? I have a pair like this, and I don’t see any other reasonable option for the Biden one

We should of course add new markets for the new Democratic candidate though

🙏🏼 please weigh in on the other market. I can’t manage threads effectively across both.

i assume the market also resolves NA if it's rescheduled before the election?

@cauli Yes