MANIFOLD
V4 (DeepSeek) release date
77
Ṁ1.5kṀ21k
May 1
23%
Before March 2026
63%
Before April 2026
84%
Before May 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as 'DeepSeek V4.1', or other names for a model generally expected to be called V4, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

GPT 5.4 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date (this market)

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Mistral 4 (Mistral) release date

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

Market context
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I’m writing to confirm that DeepSeek V4 has officially launched and meets all resolution criteria ahead of the March 1st deadline.

On February 17, 2026 (aligned with the Lunar New Year), DeepSeek released V4 to the public. It is now generally accessible without any individual vetting or invitation-only requirements:

Product & API: The model is live on the DeepSeek Chat web/mobile interface and via the official API using the deepseek-v4 identifier.

Accessibility: Both free and paid tiers can access the model immediately, fulfilling the 'open, non-selective' requirement.

Identification: The model is explicitly named 'DeepSeek V4', matching the primary name expected by this market.

Given that the model is no longer in a closed beta or limited benchmark phase, this market should now resolve to YES. Thank you for keeping this updated

@URS9 if you think it’s been released, why aren’t you buying yes right now?

@Jack1 I have invested 600 to yes on before march. As for rn I only have 20 Manas for streak

bought Ṁ512 NO

@Bayesian Resolves NO

bought Ṁ350 NO

@Bayesian plese resolve NO

@Bayesian resolves no?

@Bayesian Resolves NO

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