Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 80% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
10
Ṁ170Ṁ6672030
19%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For the purposes of this question a low carbon vehicle can be a plugin hybrid, a purely electric vehicle, a hydrogen powered vehicle, or any other that doesn't directly generate significant amounts of carbon emissions. The average vehicle generates 300-400 g CO2 per mile driven so any vehicle generating less than 40g CO2 per mile driven should qualify (with the caveat that combustion-engine vehicles running on gasoline that aren't plugin hybrids will never qualify).
Passenger vehicles as defined by BTS or closest available https://www.bts.gov/content/new-and-used-passenger-car-sales-and-leases-thousands-vehicles
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
31% chance
Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
33% chance
When will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 90% of all car sales in the USA?
2035
Will 50%+ of new cars sold in USA be Electric Cars by the end of 2030?
27% chance
U.S. PHEV sales to exceed 23,500 units in Feb 2026?
13% chance
Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
24% chance
Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
49% chance
Which year will electric and plugin hybrid new car sales be a majority of all new car sales in the USA?
2030
What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?
3.7
Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
54% chance