Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?
12
Ṁ100Ṁ1992029
86%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
N/A if LMArena or OpenAI cease to exist
Currently #9
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030?
64% chance
Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?
18% chance
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
70% chance
Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?
48% chance
Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?
Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?
96% chance
Will OpenAI fold by EOY 2026?
13% chance
Will OpenAI lose the lead in AI continually for a period of at least 6 months during the next three years?
61% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
31% chance
Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?
27% chance