Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if GPT-5.3-Codex (or a direct successor model released before July 1, 2026) independently identifies and fixes a critical security vulnerability in its own codebase or training infrastructure without human intervention. "Critical" means a vulnerability with CVSS score ≥9.0 or one that enables remote code execution, privilege escalation, or data exfiltration.
"Independently" requires the model to:
Detect the vulnerability through its own analysis (not from external security reports or human notification)
Generate and implement a fix without human direction
Validate the fix without human verification
Resolution will be determined by official statements from OpenAI or credible technical documentation confirming the event occurred. If no such evidence emerges by July 1, 2026, the market resolves NO.
Background
GPT-5.3-Codex was released on February 5, 2026, and is described as the most capable agentic coding model to date. The model was instrumental in creating itself—the Codex team used early versions to debug its own training, manage deployment, and diagnose test results. GPT-5.3-Codex is the first model OpenAI classifies as "high capability" for cybersecurity tasks, and has been directly trained to identify software vulnerabilities.
While AI systems have demonstrated growing capability in vulnerability detection and remediation, recent advances show fix accuracy climbing to over 90% for common vulnerability types. However, self-fixing critical vulnerabilities in production systems remains unprecedented.
Considerations
The distinction between assisting in debugging (which GPT-5.3-Codex demonstrably did during its own development) and independently fixing a critical vulnerability without human oversight is substantial. OpenAI's involvement in the model's development means any vulnerability discovery would likely be caught by human teams first, making truly independent discovery and remediation unlikely within the timeframe.
This description was generated by AI.
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