Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)? | Manifold

Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)?

10

Ṁ1kṀ2.2k

2030

24%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Which will be true first:

YES:

NO:

OpenAI announces they (or someone else) have achieved AGI

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Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?

-3% 1d59% chance

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Will AI create the first AGI?

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Will AI create the first AGI?

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

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