Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if China officially claims to have discovered life on Mars before January 1, 2035. A "claim" requires a public statement from the China National Space Administration (CNSA) or official Chinese government sources asserting the discovery of life (extant or extinct). The claim must be based on scientific findings, not speculation. To date, no conclusive evidence of past or present life has been found on Mars, so any such claim would represent a significant scientific announcement. The market resolves NO if no such claim is made by the deadline.

Background

China's Tianwen-3 Mars sample return mission is planned to launch around 2028 and retrieve Martian samples by 2031. The primary scientific goal is the detection of potential biosignatures and answering whether life has ever existed on Mars. The mission's objectives include searching for potential signs of life on Mars, including biomarkers, fossils and archaea. China's Tianwen-1 probe reached Mars' orbit in 2021 and deployed the Zhurong rover to the planet's surface, making China the third country after the Soviet Union and the United States to land on Mars.

Considerations

NASA's Perseverance rover found a possible biosignature in a Jezero Crater rock in 2024, hinting at ancient microbial activity, but the agency reported it found "potential biosignatures" on Mars, which could be evidence of ancient life—not definitive proof. This is not definitive evidence for past life on Mars; what has been observed could have been made by life, but until proven that it only could have been made by life and no other processes, it cannot be called definitive evidence. China's claim would need to meet a similar or higher standard of evidence to be considered a genuine discovery claim.

This description was generated by AI.