How many members of the 2026 USA IMO Team will have a last name in [N, Z]?

Question

Of the expected 6 individuals who make the USA IMO team, how many will have a last name in [N, Z]? If the IMO is cancelled or a number different than 6 of individuals make USA IMO team, this market will resolve N/A.

This will be resolved to the best of my ability.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 5, followed by 6 and 4 are most likely. See the market for live updates (24 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).

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