Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ151Oct 4
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
83%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
50%
Flávio Bolsonaro
8%
Tarcício de Freitas
8%
Fernando Haddad
Resolution criteria
A candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to win outright. If no candidate does so, the top two candidates head to a runoff. The first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if needed. Resolution will be based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) at https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/. A candidate resolves "Yes" if they advance to the runoff or win outright in the first round; otherwise "No".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Who will be on the ballot for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?
12% chance
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?
Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected Governor of São Paulo?
Who will win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected Senator in São Paulo (SP)? (2 seats)
Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
48% chance